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Abstract
Germany should pay more attention to risks in procurement, manufacturing and sales in China. First, China's population has been shrinking since 2022 and is rapidly ageing; this will cause its economic strength as well as production and consumption opportunities to decrease. Secondly, the threat of a Taiwan invasion is rising and only mitigated by the globally integrated chip industry. Thirdly, China will increasingly shape standards in international payments and Central Bank Digital Currencies. This will raise its power for sanctioning other countries financially. Overall, while Germany should focus on further diversifying its economy, its exposure with regard to China is lower than commonly thought.

Economic cooperation among mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao has deepened quickly since 2019. A roadmap for China's southeastern province Guangdong promotes a common development of nine municipalities within the Pearl River Delta and the two Special Administrative Regions. The Chinese government wants this combined Greater Bay Area to become a highly innovative city cluster with world-class technologies and industries. Fully integrated transport networks and many pilot schemes are on their way. They will probably end the "one country, two systems"-principle much before schedule. However, the ambitious plan faces impediments such as political tensions, trade confl icts and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Even before the coronavirus pandemic, financial and geopolitical problems were weighing on the "New Silk Road": China's overall investment has been declining for years, key construction projects are unprofitable, partners in Eastern and Southeastern Europe are turning away, and environmentally harmful projects are increasingly meeting resistance. Since 2020, affluent democracies reinforce alternatives and the People's Republic also defers debt. In addition to the "BRI Green Partnership", Xi Jinping is therefore pushing the "Digital Silk Road" and "China Standards 2035", i. e. global technology and standardisation projects.

Die Volksrepublik China will wichtige Städte ihrer südöstlichen Küstenprovinz Guangdong eng mit Hongkong und Macao verbinden. Geplant ist ein integrierter Wirtschaftsraum, der bis spätestens 2035 eine globale Führungsrolle einnehmen soll. Die Grundidee ist nicht neu, nimmt aber zunehmend Gestalt an. Es gibt allerdings auch große Hindernisse. ; Economic cooperation among mainland China, Hong Kong and Macao has deepened quickly since 2019. A roadmap for China's southeastern province Guangdong promotes a common development of nine municipalities within the Pearl River Delta and the two Special Administrative Regions. The Chinese government wants this combined Greater Bay Area to become a highly innovative city cluster with world-class technologies and industries. Fully integrated transport networks and many pilot schemes are on their way. They will probably end the 'one country, two systems'-principle much before schedule. However, the ambitious plan faces impediments such as political tensions, trade confl icts and the COVID-19 pandemic.

Schon vor der Corona-Pandemie belasteten finanzielle und geopolitische Probleme die "Neue Seidenstraße": Chinas Gesamtinvestitionen gehen seit Jahren zurück, wichtige Bauprojekte sind unrentabel, die Partner in Ost- und Südosteuropa wenden sich ab, und umweltschädliche Vorhaben stoßen zunehmend auf Widerstand. Seit 2020 bieten wohlhabende Demokratien verstärkt Alternativen, und auch die Volksrepublik stundet Schulden. Xi Jinping forciert daher neben dem 'BRI Green Partnership' vor allem die "Digital Silk Road" und "China Standards 2035", also globale Technologie- und Normierungsprojekte. ; Even before the coronavirus pandemic, financial and geopolitical problems were weighing on the 'New Silk Road': China's overall investment has been declining for years, key construction projects are unprofitable, partners in Eastern and Southeastern Europe are turning away, and environmentally harmful projects are increasingly meeting resistance. Since 2020, affluent democracies reinforce alternatives and the People's Republic also defers debt. In addition to the "BRI Green Partnership", Xi Jinping is therefore pushing the "Digital Silk Road" and "China Standards 2035", i. e. global technology and standardisation projects.